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30.6 – thought of the day

Since I have nothing new to add on my own work of late, how about this instead. I had been watching this news of trouble out of Africa and nearby areas with some small interest, early on at least, nothing new seemed to be happening for a while, as though it had all but come to an end. Anyway, as anyone that has actually looked at teh news will have seen, a group of mostly Cyrenaican rebels have effectively all but defeated the former Libyan government and taken over the Tripoli. Latest news is that they are failing to run the place efficiently, no police, failing water supply, no TV and so on.
Myself, I am wondering what is going to happen in the longer term. Having spent some time studying history, I have seen something of a pattern developing in such situations, a group of people from different places and opinions drawn together by their hatred of one man, once he is gone, what is there to hold them together. All over the world, for hundreds of years, such revolutions have ended in different factions within the victorious side fighting against each other. Such wars in particular made up about half the history of south america, the other half being the rise of their dictators, usually in the midst of such fighting.
Libya is an interesting country, though, originally two provices of the Turkish Empire, they were joined together and sent into independence in the 1940s. It was an important Cyrenaican figure that was chosen as king of the whole, and as such the east was always more loyal to the monarchy, whilst western Tripolitania threw much more support behind the revolution, and continued to do so until just recently. The two parts are only one country as a technicallity, though chances are any new government will want to hold onto as much land as they can. Meanwhile the Fezzan to the south has long shown little interest in such affairs, and little influence either, given that it has a population of about 700. Meanwhile, this defeat means the end of Gadaffi’s long running and rarely successful plans to unite a large part of the arabic region as a single country.
As well as the question of setting up a whole new government, and how well run and how actually democratic and popular it will be, and these thoughts of the country split in half, there remains a small chance that the heir of Idris as-Senussi could return as king, he does remain, the last I heard, leader of an influential religious order based somewhere around Benghazi.

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